Perdu dans le tourbillon du passionnant week-end d’ouverture de l’ABS, Yainer Diaz a réalisé le pire défi de la saison.
je quantifie "pire" comme la situation de pourcentage d’équilibre de rentabilité (cBE%) la plus élevée qui a été maintenue.
Sur un décompte de 0-0 avec deux retraits et des buts vides dès la 1ère manche, vous devez être sûr à 86 % d’avoir raison pour justifier un défi dans cette situation. Au lieu de cela, Diaz a contesté un lancer qui était de près de 2" haut.
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Par why_doineedausername
16 Comments
Challenge Breakeven Percentage is defined as:
The minimum confidence that a call will be overturned needed to justify using a challenge. Calculated as avg_cost / (avg_cost + swing), where swing is the RE difference between a ball and a strike in the current state, and avg_cost is the average run expectancy cost of losing a challenge. Lower values mean the challenge is easier to justify. Originally published by Tom Tango.
Does he know catcher framing isn’t supposed to fool yourself
That was certainly a decision 🤣
Yainer doesn’t really know the zone when he’s batting or catching
Using a challenge trying to get ahead of a batter with 2 outs and no one on in the 1st inning is nuts to me
Looks like one I challenged in RTTS over the weekend. Wasn’t even fuckin close, but I was hammered and thought it was.
This is what baseball has become. Dumb player challenges.
The stakes were higher but Wallner’s challenge on strike 3 yesterday was on a pitch that was clearly a strike.
I figured it would be on a pitch with a ton of break.
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I gotta get used to these ABS confidence metrics. Pretty crazy that we’ve already got new advanced stats for something that was officially introduced less than a week ago.
tbf if the abs zone was 3D like the normal strike zone that probably isnt as bad since it was breaking downward
Ok I’m confused, doesn’t that pitch cross at the batter’s letters? How is that 2” high? Isn’t that exactly where the top of the strike zone should be?
Wait, what is the percentage for Guerrero’s challenge in a similar situation for the Jays…but with a 2-0 count? I would’ve thought the benefit of going strike to ball was lower at 2-0 than 0-0 but maybe not.
Overall, Vlad’s is still better since the quality of the hitter is relevant as well and he’s a better hitter than Diaz.
Maldy would never
ABS has been a beautiful disaster so far and I love it. Accurate calls plus players looking dumb (or badass like Arozarena) is the best of both worlds.
Soler was like…. aight.